Recidivism refers to the act of re-offending after release from prison, parole, or probation. It is a very important concept in criminal justice, as it serves as a key to evaluate the effectiveness of rehabilitation programs, sentencing policies and correctional institutions.

This was stated in a recently published report by the EUCPN – European Crime Prevention Network – on reducing recidivism.

The term encompasses various forms of re-entry into the criminal justice system, such as being arrested, repeatedly convicted or re-imprisoned for committing new offences or violating terms of supervision.

Recidivism rates are often expressed as percentages over a specified period, usually within two to three years of release. For example, if 50 out of every 100 persons released re-offend in a three-year period, the recidivism rate would be 50%.

In the European Union, this diversity in both the definition of recidivism and in the data and collection methods is the reason for the lack of comparable data on recidivism.

A 2020 systematic review of recidivism rates worldwide shows, for example, that Denmark uses reconviction rates at six months, one and two years, while Estonia and France measure recidivism up to five and six years after release.

The overall result is that EU countries, broadly speaking, have two-year recidivism rates of between 30% and 50%. If we add to these recidivism rates that many perpetrators re-offend not just once, but two or more times, we quickly conclude that most crimes are committed by a relatively small number of repeat offenders.

Research in Sweden, based on data relating to all violent offenders from 1973 to 2004 shows that 63% of all those convicted in this period committed a crime by perpetrators with three or more convictions, a group that constitutes 1% of the total population, and a quarter of all criminal violence.

Understanding and addressing recidivism is crucial not only for public safety, but also for reducing the social and economic costs associated with repeated incarceration.

Reducing recidivism rates helps ease the burden on overcrowded prisons and ensures a more effective use of taxpayer resources.

High recidivism rates are often cited as evidence of the current shortcomings of incarceration practices. Several studies have shown that prison sentences, in and of themselves, are not effective in reducing crime and preventing recidivism, or at least are no more effective than non-custodial alternatives. More importantly, critics argue that punitive approaches, such as (long) prison sentences, do not address underlying problems and may even aggravate criminal tendencies by isolating people and exposing them to criminogenic environments.

Prisonisation refers to the negative effect that prison sentences can have on prisoners’ mental health and behaviour, including criminality. The very conditions of prison life can have a negative impact on inmates’ mental health. It is also likely that inmates will lose their social support networks at the same time as there are new links with offenders likely to be forged. Post-release opportunities, especially employment opportunities, are reduced by the mere fact of incarceration.

However, not all recidivism can be explained as a consequence of prisonisation. Recidivism is influenced by a number of factors, both individual and systemic. At the individual level, factors such as substance abuse, lack of education, mental health problems and limited employment opportunities increase the likelihood of recidivism.

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A few days ago, the 2024 annual cybersecurity threat report was released by Recorded Future, of the Insikt Group. The report analyses the tactics, techniques and procedures of threat actors and their motivations as of 2024 with the aim of informing with data on cyber risk management and giving tools for threat detection.

It generally argues that the cybersecurity landscape in 2024 was shaped by the resilience of criminal networks and the increasing complexity of enterprise attack surfaces due to the growing use of SaaS products, which in numerous cases led to unauthorised access to corporate and institutional data due to the increase in stolen credentials.

It also states that actions to curb ransomware operations had limited impact as criminals adapted to them. In addition, the report exemplifies how several state-sponsored actors used generative AI for information operations and state of opinion creation, especially during elections in more than 70 countries, to facilitate geopolitical objectives.

Predictions for 2025 include developers using AI to achieve more secure codes, the possibility of fraud in the cryptocurrency world that could lead to market destabilisation, and new threats as a result of the implementation of Generative Artificial Intelligence.

Main conclusions

The growing adoption of SaaS (Software as a Service) amplifies the risk of identity exploits, with stolen credentials accessed by malware to steal information that causes significant damage. These data-stealing infections, often targeting personal devices, gained more credentials per infection than in previous years, increasing the risk to SaaS ecosystems.

Extortion groups proliferate despite police action. Law enforcement actions disrupted major criminal ransomware groups, but the criminals reorganised into smaller groups, demonstrating their operational resilience.

Manufacturing, healthcare and construction were the industries most targeted by ransomware groups,reflecting specific targeting patterns by strategic sectors.

Criminal groups associated with Iran, China and Russia targeted critical civilian infrastructure in disruptive cyberattacks, takinga further step in the hybrid conflicts that increasingly dominate the new contemporary wars.

Generative AI accelerates the spread of inauthentic content in a historic election year. Maliciously influenced state-sponsored operations increasingly rely on GenAI to produce and distribute misleading content to influence elections around the world.

Disruptive tactics and techniques make detection difficult. Criminal groups are increasingly using remote monitoring and management (RMM) tools to evade detection, driven by their operational efficiency. Tactics involving defence evasion showed the greatest increase, highlighting a trend toward strategies that do not involve writing code to disk.

Predictions for 2025

A major breach of AI spoofing in SaaS applications is expected, and new Chinese APT intrusions into U.S. critical infrastructure will be revealed. 

A high-impact cyber incident will likely involve macOS or mobile malware, and crypto fraud will result in a market-destabilising event.

Developers will adopt AI to transition to new code, and the U.S. will move towards harmonisation of cyber regulation.

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Younger people are more likely to report cybercrime than older people. As older people spend more time online, this may begin to change. If similarly exposed, risk factors such as social isolation or poor health could make older adults disproportionately susceptible. The survey was conducted to explore whether cybercrime risks and their predictors vary across age groups.

The survey analysed the responses of 35,069 participants over the age of 16 in the 2019/20 Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW). They investigated, among people who have used the internet in the past year, the risks of suffering any cybercrime, repeated victimisation and associated financial losses among all age groups.

Despite having a lower risk of reporting any cybercrime in the past year, people over the age of 75 were more likely to report financial losses as a result of cybercrime victimisation and repeated cybercrime victimisation than younger people.

Men, those belonging to mixed or black ethnic groups, the most disadvantaged areas, managerial professional groups and with poorer health were at higher risk of cybercrime.

While younger adults are at a higher risk of cybercrime, older adults reported more severe cases – repetitive victimisation and associated financial losses – perhaps because of being less aware of scams and reporting options.

Because most people experience deteriorating health as they age, a greater understanding of why poor health predicts cybercrime could inform prevention initiatives that would particularly benefit older age groups and mitigate the risks of increasing internet use among older adults. Health and social care professionals could be well positioned to support prevention.

Cybercrimes include hacking through technological methods and social engineering, in which a victim is tricked into revealing the information needed to access a device, network or program, such as a banking application or to transfer money electronically.

Social engineering is a broad term that includes cryptocurrency-related fraud, phishing, and dating, and occurs on platforms such as email and social media. It is inherently discriminatory, as attackers tailor their approach to the vulnerabilities of different victims.

The survey finds that males are more likely to suffer victimisation and recidivism than females. A plausible explanation is that men, who have been found to take more risks than women in general, may also engage in higher-risk behaviours or activities online, making them more vulnerable to wrongdoers.

Older adults may also be less able than younger adults to avoid repeated victimisation and financial loss, and may also be underestimating less severe victimisation that does not involve recidivism in crime or financial loss.

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The interior and women’s ministers, together with the vice-president of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (BKA), have just presented the balance sheet of crimes against women for the year 2023[1].

The most relevant data in this report are:

• 938 girls and women victims of homicide (attempted and completed crime included), a figure that implies 32.4% of all victims of crimes against life. 80.6% of these victims were in the context of partner relationships. A total of 360 girls and women lost their lives due to completed homicides, that is, almost one femicide a day.

• 52,330 girls and women were victims of crimes against sexual freedom (up 6.2% compared to the previous year). More than half were minors.

• 17,193 women were victims of digital violence, such as cyberbullying or other crimes that, for example, are committed on social networks. The increase in this area is of 25% compared to the previous year.

• 70.5% of victims of domestic violence were girls and women, with a total of 180,715 victims (171,076 in 2022), many more in the context of partner relationships (79.2% of the total) than by intra-family violence (54% of the total).

• 591 girls and women were victims of human trafficking crimes for the purpose of sexual exploitation, an increase of 6.9% compared to 2022. 31.5% of these victims were under the age of 21.

• Crimes against women within the group of politically motivated crimes (hate crimes against women) grew by 56.3%, with 322 crimes compared to 206 in 2022.

• The vast majority of victims and perpetrators of these crimes were of German nationality. Only in the case of human trafficking crimes do we find a majority of victims and perpetrators of nationalities other than German.

The report speaks of various causes of this increase in violence against women. One of the reasons given is that the growing emancipation of women can threaten the social and professional position of many men. The reaction against that perceived threat may be violence. In this context, it is necessary to take into account the hate messages that are broadcast on the Internet and that have a notable diffusion. The presence on the network of these anti-feminist messages can make those who are against women’s equality think they are a majority and radicalise their response against women. This reality suggests that campaigns to prevent and combat violence against women must go far beyond police actions (which are necessary) and be able to influence public opinion effectively, so that the process of social and professional equalisation of women is assumed as positive and necessary.

In the purely police sphere, the report believes that it is necessary to intensify the fight against online feminophobia, to improve the results of the fight against the sexual exploitation of many women and to continue to collaborate in the identification of victims and perpetrators of femicide at international level.

[1] Vid. BKA – Meldungen – Bundeslagebild – Geschlechtsspezifisch gegen Frauen gerichtete Straftaten 2023

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According to the report published by the U.S. Department of Justice, the violent victimisation rate in North America in 2023 was 22.5 crimes per 1,000 persons aged 12 years or older, similar to the rate in 2022 (23.5).

It should be noted that an episode of violent victimisation includes rape or sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault and simple assault.

During the last three decades, there has been an overall decline in the rate of violence, from 1993 (79.8 per 1,000 people) to 2023 (22.5).

The violent victimisation rate excluding simple assault decreased for males from 9.5 per 1000 in 2022 to 6.9 in 2023, while for females it did not change significantly.

The rate of intimate partner violence (violent victimisations committed by current or former spouses, boyfriends or girlfriends) decreased from 3.4 crimes per 1000 persons aged 12 or older in 2022 to 2.2 per 1000 persons in 2023.

As for U.S. households, they experienced 13.6 million victimisations in 2023. The number of victimised properties was comparable to 2022, but higher than the 12.8 million in 2019. Property crime includes burglary or trespassing, motor vehicle theft, and other types of domestic theft. From 2022 to 2023, the property victimisation rate in urban areas increased from 176.1 crimes per 1000 households to 192.3 per 1000 dwellings.

The rate of violent victimisation reported to the police was 10.1 per 1,000 persons from 2022 to 2023 and represented a continuation of the general trend of declining numbers since 1993, when the highest ever figure was recorded (33.8 per 1000).

However, the 2023 rate was higher than in 2020 (6.6 per 1000) and 2021 (7.5 per 1000) but was comparable to 5 years ago in 2019. In 2023, a lower percentage of theft crimes were reported to the police (42%) than in 2022 (64%).

The percentage of overall property crime victimisations reported to the police decreased from 32% in 2022 to 30% in 2023, due in part to a decrease in police reports of motor vehicle thefts (from 81% to 72%).

The full report (Criminal Victimization, 2023, NCJ 309335, BJS, September 2024), with related documents and additional information about the Bureau of Justice Statistics, is available on the BJS website: bjs.ojp.gov.

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The latest New Zealand Crime and Victims Survey (NZCVS) has just been published, offering new insights into the nature of reported and unreported crimes.

Published by the Ministry of Justice, the NZCVS is based on interviews conducted with over 7,100 New Zealanders between November 2022 and October 2023.

The survey indicates that 32% of New Zealanders suffered crimes during the 12 months prior to the interview, an increase from 31% in 2022. This overall figure has remained relatively stable since the survey began in 2018, according to calculations by Rebecca Parish, Ministry of Justice General Manager Sector Insights.

Overall, the NZCVS found that New Zealanders experienced 1.88 million criminal incidents in the 12-month period. Therefore, the number of victims is consistent with previous years, but there was an increase in fraud and vehicle theft.

Most frauds were identified by unauthorised banking transactions (66%), followed by online purchases (20%). The increase is a global trend and is probably related to people carrying out more online financial activities, particularly online shopping.

Vehicle theft increased by 47%, from about 41,000 households in 2022 to about 60,000 households in 2023. The survey shows that most vehicles were stolen in the street or on the road. They were less likely to be stolen if they were parked in a garage, parking lot or public parking area.

In addition, in 2023, 185,000 New Zealanders were victims of violent crime. Violent crimes include physical and/or sexual assault and robbery.

The proportion of victims reporting to the police has remained stable since the survey began in 2018. However, in contrast to the number of victims, a higher proportion of domestic incidents (thefts and vehicle thefts) reported to the police was observed last year. Across all crimes, 28% of all incidents were reported to the police.

In general, the most common reason people give for not reporting is that they believe the incident is too trivial to warrant reporting it (38%).

Vehicle crimes (58%), interpersonal violence (40%), and theft (43%) are the most reported crimes. On the contrary, fraud and cybercrime are the least reported (11%).

Other key findings:

• In 2023, more New Zealanders felt unsafe compared to 2018, particularly those aged 30 or over, Asian adults, and individuals residing in Auckland or Waikato.
• The number of people experiencing family crimes has decreased from 87,000 people to 70,000 since the survey began in 2018. This is due to the decrease in the number of crimes committed by family members who are not intimate partners: parents, children, or other relatives.
• The proportion of Māori adults who are victims of crime each year has been decreasing since the survey began, from 39% in 2018 to 34% in 2023.
• The proportion of Asian adults who are victims of crimes has increased from 24% in 2018 to 30% in 2023, due to the rise in fraud and deception.

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The new report of Europol’s European Migrant Smuggling Centre (EMSC) analyses the latest advances and the main threats in human trafficking and migrant smuggling, based on the most recent operations carried out with the support of Europol. The report highlights the major challenges presented by the current criminal landscape and aims to assist law enforcement agencies in intensifying their fight against criminal networks, which not only deprive people of their dignity but directly threaten their lives.

Human trafficking and migrant smuggling networks are highly adaptable and exploit geopolitical events, including economic and social crises, to maximise their illegal profits. These networks swiftly identify illicit opportunities offered by the digital environment and leverage them to boost their illegal earnings. Criminals exploit social networking platforms, mobile apps, and cryptocurrencies to offer their illicit services, manage logistics and payments, and secure their profits.

In 2015, the European Union faced an unprecedented migration crisis. In response, in 2016, Europol enhanced its support to national police authorities by establishing a dedicated centre, the European Migrant Smuggling Centre of Europol, to facilitate closer cross-border cooperation and swift operational information exchange.

In 2023 alone, Europol provided support to 223 operations against migrant smuggling and human trafficking networks. The agency also provided 1,231 operational reports to law enforcement authorities to advance their investigations in 2023. Europol has further expanded the concept of Operational Task Forces (OTFs) in this crime area, with 11 OTFs targeting migrant smuggling and human trafficking networks.

Investigations into human trafficking and migrant smuggling reveal a complex and dynamic criminal environment in which actors exploit existing infrastructures and engage in various illegal activities. These criminal networks are also involved in other illicit activities, such as trafficking in drugs and firearms, document fraud, and violence. Human trafficking and smuggling of migrants are interconnected, particularly in cases where undocumented migrants are in debt to their traffickers and end up in labour or sexual exploitation schemes to pay off smuggling fees. The links between migrant smuggling, terrorism, and terrorist financing are especially concerning.

The main features of criminal networks involved in migrant and human trafficking:

• Strong links with other crime areas and crime enablers.

• High level of flexibility and adaptability

• Exploitation of geopolitical, economic, environmental, and social crises.

• Intense cooperation with other cross-border criminal networks within and outside the EU.

• Extension of violence towards irregular migrants, law enforcement, competitors, and within the criminal networks themselves.

• Increase in the digitalisation of the fundamental components of criminal activities.

The European Multidisciplinary Platform Against Criminal Threats (EMPACT) addresses the major threats posed by serious and organised international crime affecting the EU. EMPACT strengthens intelligence, strategic and operational cooperation between national authorities, Union institutions and bodies, and international partners. EMPACT is carried out in four-year cycles focusing on the European Union’s common crime priorities.

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Europol has just published the 10th edition of Internet Organised Crime Threat Assessment (IOCTA), a report that turns into an in-depth analysis of the main developments, changes, and emerging threats in the cybercrime field over the past year.

The document highlights the relevant trends in criminal areas such as cyberattacks, online child sexual exploitation, and online fraud and payment system crimes. It also provides an outlook on what can be anticipated in the immediate future, particularly in terms of new technologies, payment systems, artificial intelligence, cryptocurrencies, and illegal online content.

Recent police operations have caused ransomware groups to split up and rebrand under different disguises. Furthermore, the continuous elimination of forums and marketplaces on the dark web has shortened the life cycle of criminal spaces. This instability, when combined with the surge in existing scams, has contributed to the fragmentation and multiplication of cyber threats.

In 2023, millions of victims across the EU were attacked and exploited online daily:

• Ransomware groups are increasingly targeting small and medium-sized businesses because they have fewer cyber defences.
• E-commerce and banking institutions are the preferred targets of digital attacks.
• Users are still falling victim to phishing campaigns, business email compromise (BEC), investment fraud, and romance fraud.
• The number of cases of online sexual extortion targeting vulnerable minors is increasing.

Extortion tactics are increasingly common across the whole cybercrime threat spectrum, as stolen data are at risk of being published and auctioned, makingre-victimisation a threat. Criminals often seem to be minors and some have started to take advantage of AI, which is increasingly becoming a part of their toolbox. The use of cryptocurrencies in a broader range of criminal activities has also become more prominent.

AI-assisted cybercrime has only just begun: child sexual abuse material is a worrying threat that will require in-depth monitoring. AI-altered and fully artificial images will pose growing challenges to law enforcement investigations, not only in terms of the volume in circulation, but also to the ability of investigators to identify the true identity of victims and offenders.

The use of cryptocurrencies in various areas of criminality has become more evident. Several developments in this market are expected to have a significant impact on the abuse of cryptocurrencies by criminals in the near future. Fraudsters could abuse the increase in traded funds related to these assets.

To address the main threats highlighted in the IOCTA 2024 effectively and promptly, law enforcement requires appropriate knowledge, tools, and legislation. As criminals adapt, law enforcement and legislators should innovate to stay ahead and seek to capitalise on new and emerging technologies. This subsequently requires training to generate the specialised capabilities required to investigate intricate or technically demanding cybercrimes, such as those involving the misuse of cryptocurrencies or the dark web.

Europol addresses these digital challenges with its strategy ‘Delivering Security in Partnership’. The agency is at the forefront of innovation in law enforcement and serves as a knowledge platform, offering EU policing solutions related to encryption, cryptocurrencies, and other issues. In doing so, Europol expands the toolbox available to law enforcement officers in Europe and beyond, enhancing their technical and forensic capabilities. Europol’s European Cybercrime Centre (EC3) is the first port of call for cybercrime investigators.

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It is not uncommon for victims to have difficulties engaging with law enforcement after experiencing an attack. Victims often fear not being believed or think that reporting the crime will have no effect.

This article, signed by Maya Metni Pilkington, originally appeared in Police Chief Magazine and is republished in the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) with the permission of International Association of Chiefs of Police.

How can law enforcement agencies help victims have contact with the system after an attack? The answer lies in creating good practices for victim contact. Three research projects funded by the United States Department of Justice are examining it from new perspectives.

Sexual assault kits contain crucial evidence. Unfortunately, gathering the evidence contained in them can be intrusive and re-traumatising for victims, who must undergo forensic medical examinations shortly after experiencing an attack, at a time when they may not be prepared to report the crime to the police.

Despite the importance of routinely sending semen, blood, saliva, and hair samples contained in sexual assault kits for criminal investigations and prosecutions, they are not commonly dispatched for forensic DNA testing and analysis. Police and criminal laboratories may have large accumulations of untested kits. Delays in testing not only hinder the pursuit of justice but can also perpetuate or exacerbate the trauma of victims.

Inflows of public funds, together with persistent public protest, have driven many jurisdictions to expedite the processing of their untested kits, resulting in the identification of thousands of individuals who have committed crimes through matches in the Combined DNA Index System (CODIS). For the reopening of these cases, often months or even years pass since the original crime. Police and prosecutors should reach out to the victims to inform them that their evidence had never been analysed and that their cases could be reopened, a process that can prove to be deeply traumatising.

Dr. Rebecca Campbell, a Psychology professor at Michigan State University, focuses on understanding the consequences of unprocessed sexual assault kits on victims. Her work studies the prolonged psychological anguish and the feeling of injustice in survivors who have been denied quick resolution and closure of the case.

In 2009, this investigation found 8,717 kits in Detroit and Michigan that had never been sent for testing, primarily due to years of understaffing and insufficient resources.

In her research, Dr. Campbell interviewed survivors of sexual assaults in Detroit, and all had collected kits that had not been sent for analysis. The kits were found in the Detroit backlog, were sent for analysis, and were selected for victim notification. Their legal cases were reopened, processed, decided, and closed. Of the 112 survivors who meet the study’s criteria, 32 chose to participate, a testament to the difficulty these victims face in re-engaging with their attack. This may be especially pertinent when it comes to re-establishing a connection with the system.

Why are victim-officer interactions important? It is in the police department’s interest to improve interactions with victims to prevent officers from causing further harm to victims beyond what they have already experienced, and to enable officers to be a useful resource for victims. Furthermore, training on improved communication and a more empathetic response to victims has been proven to enhance case processing, meaning that cases after training had more tagged evidence, were more likely to be forwarded to specialist investigators for follow-up, and had more officers assigned to victim advocacy referrals. The results of certain research highlight how training based on trauma is promising for advancing survivor-centred police response to sexual assault.

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Violent incidents, such as mass public shootings and terrorist attacks, are rare, but have widespread and catastrophic impacts within society. These devastating and often high-profile events raise questions about their causes and how best to prevent them. However, rare events are very difficult to predict.

The National Institute of Justice (NIJ) journal has published an article intended to raise awareness and assist in prevention efforts. Along these lines, the research community (Basia E. Lopez, Danielle M. Crimmins, Aisha J. Qureshi, and Nadine Frederique) must develop a strategy for obtaining, coding, testing, and analysing data on rare violent incidents.

Finding answers to questions that can guide the prevention of these events is complicated. Naturally, one can draw on what the research shows to inform these discussions, but research on rare, albeit high-impact, events is extremely difficult to conduct and even more difficult to generalise. Research designs and methods are in continual development; however, rare incidents are still an exceptionally difficult phenomenon to study.

For example, mass public shootings are rare and context-dependent, meaning that the situation, background or location differs from case to case. As a result, it is a challenge for researchers to quantify their impact. In addition, the rarity of mass public shootings makes it difficult to develop and test theoretical models due to the lack of good quality data.

Research must go beyond these limitations to improve the criminal justice field’s ability to prevent rare violent incidents. For example, there is a lack of reliable and valid information on what factors might lead an individual to commit a mass shooting. Determining these factors requires rigorous data collection methods and analysis. But this is only the starting point. We can also leverage methods used in other disciplines that study rare events to potentially help predict violent incidents and suggest appropriate mitigation strategies.

As the scientific research, development, and evaluation arm of the U.S. Department of Justice, NIJ has played a crucial role in improving knowledge and understanding of rare violent incidents, such as public mass shootings and terrorist events. The Institute has funded a number of studies over the years that aim to provide rigorous data, a better understanding of what the data conveys, better connectivity between data sources, and consistent definitions so that the field has more information about who perpetrates mass violence, their motivations, and how they plan and carry out their attack.

A mass shooting falls under the broader category of mass murder, which is defined as the wilful (non-negligent) killing of at least four human beings by another person by any means (e.g., bomb, knife/machete, firearm, or use of a vehicle). A mass shooting is a mass murder involving at least one firearm and usually carried out at a single time and place.

Mass shootings have additional subcategories, such as:

• Public mass shootings (shootings at schools, workplaces and other places of public access, such as cinemas, restaurants, bars, places of worship or outdoor events in open spaces).
• Domestic mass shootings.
• Crime-related shootings, such as robberies and gang-related shootings (a form of organised crime and turf wars).
• Another example of mass murder is a terrorist attack during which several victims are intentionally killed.

Over the years, NIJ has been committed to supporting research on rare incidents such as terrorism and mass shootings, with special emphasis on school shootings. Recognising that knowledge gaps also exist about mass shootings outside of school settings, the Institute began investing in research on domestic radicalisation to violent extremism and terrorism in 2012, and on other public mass shootings in 2018.

Rare violent incidents are related to a lack of data, which has prompted researchers to use open-source databases to better understand them.

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