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Preventive diversion measures of the juvenile criminal system: a strategy to reduce crime and strengthen security

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The latest data published by the Youth Justice Board of England and Wales show that preventive diversion measures have become an effective tool for reducing recidivism among young people and improving community safety. Far from being an experimental programme, this approach to addressing juvenile delinquency is part of the regular operation of the services of the juvenile justice system and its institutional partners.

Preventive diversion measures consist of intervening early when a minor commits an offence, avoiding, whenever possible, their entry into the formal criminal system. Instead of prioritising punishment, efforts are made to identify the causes that have led to criminal behaviour—such as family problems, school absenteeism, mental health difficulties, or social exclusion—and to offer educational, restorative, and supportive responses. The goal is not to evade responsibilities, but to prevent the young person from reoffending and to reduce the risk of becoming involved in more serious acts.

Data for the year 2025 indicate that approximately 13,500 actions managed by the juvenile justice system services were resolved through preventive diversion mechanisms, representing 43% of the total cases in which these services intervened. The study’s authors point out, however, that this figure is still higher in practice, as it does not include the deviations managed exclusively by police forces or other local services.

Various international studies agree that formal criminal intervention on minors, especially when it occurs in the early stages, can increase the likelihood of reoffending. In contrast, well-structured preventive diversion programmes yield better results both in reducing new crimes and in decreasing the pressure on police, judicial, and penitentiary resources. This evidence reinforces the idea that an effective security policy is not based solely on punitive response, but also on prevention and early intervention.

The report also highlights that the system of preventive diversion measures is already functioning on a large scale. If current levels are maintained, nearly 50,000 young people will be served through these mechanisms over the next three years. This volume demonstrates that preventive diversion measures are now a central piece of public security policies and the juvenile criminal system, supported by collaboration among social services, police, local administrations, the educational system, and third sector entities.

Despite the positive results, the data also highlight significant differences between territories. While in Wales 63% of resolutions are preventive in nature, in London this percentage drops to 17%. These variations are partly due to differences in policing models, the characteristics of crimes, or local policies, but

they also reflect a lack of uniformity that can create inequalities in access to these opportunities.

The report also analyses the differences according to the ethnic origin of minors. White youths are significantly more likely to benefit from preventive diversion than Black youths (53% compared to 27%). Although part of this difference can be explained by territorial factors, the authors acknowledge that this is not sufficient to justify it. For this reason, the principle formulated years ago by David Lammy is recalled: when there are inequalities in the justice system, they must be explainable with objective data or reforms must be promoted to correct them.

To advance towards greater equity, the Youth Justice Board is promoting various initiatives aimed at improving the quality of professional decisions. Among them, a shared work platform between police and youth justice services stands out to disseminate best practices, as well as a standardised assessment tool that helps professionals evaluate the needs, strengths, and risks of each minor using objective criteria, reducing the impact of potential subjective biases.

The document concludes that preventive diversion measures constitute an investment in public safety. Intervening before problems escalate allows for reducing recidivism, better protecting victims, facilitating the reintegration of young people, and optimising public resources. Furthermore, the recent white paper on the youth criminal justice system from the British Government consolidates this strategic orientation, placing prevention and early intervention as central axes of future public policies.

Ultimately, the experience of England and Wales shows that security does not depend solely on the ability to sanction, but also on the ability to prevent. Betting on evidence-based interventions, coordinated among different institutions and focused on the needs of young people, allows for more effective crime reduction and the building of safer communities.

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World Cup 2026: the new risks of financial crime in sports betting

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The 2026 FIFA World Cup is not only one of the most followed sporting events on the planet, but also one of the most attractive for criminal organisations. The enormous volume of bets generated by this tournament, along with the expansion of cryptocurrency-based prediction markets, is opening new avenues for organised crime to launder capital, manipulate markets, and exploit the difficulties faced by regulators in controlling these activities.

Traditionally, illegal gambling has been a tool used to launder money from criminal activities. The mechanism is simple: illicit money is deposited in betting platforms and, after several operations, the winnings are withdrawn as if they were legitimate income. The most sophisticated criminal networks use multiple accounts and bet on different outcomes to minimise losses and give the appearance of legality to their funds.

The emergence of so-called prediction markets has introduced a new dimension to the problem. Unlike traditional betting houses, these platforms operate as a marketplace where users buy and sell positions on the outcome of an event, often using cryptocurrencies. This structure facilitates almost instantaneous international operations and hinders the tracing of financial flows by the authorities.

In addition to the risk of money laundering, these markets present other significant vulnerabilities. One is the use of insider information, that is, individuals with early access to relevant data —such as player injuries, line-ups, or refereeing decisions— who can gain economic benefits before this information becomes public. The other is the manipulation of sporting events, especially through the known spot-fixing, which consists of altering specific actions in a match (yellow cards, corners, or penalties) without needing to influence the final result.

According to various international organisations, the volume of money that moves annually in illegal betting markets is enormous and continues to grow. The increase in online gambling, especially in emerging countries, along with the widespread use of e-wallets, mobile payment systems, and cryptocurrencies, has created a highly fragmented financial infrastructure. This fragmentation makes it difficult for a single authority to track the complete flow of money, especially when operations cross various jurisdictions.

Cryptocurrencies add complexity, but they also offer some transparency. All transactions are recorded on the blockchain, allowing investigators to analyse the movements of funds. However, identifying who is behind each digital wallet remains one of the main challenges, especially when users utilise multiple addresses, intermediary services, or platforms located in countries with limited regulation.

This scenario highlights another difficulty: the lack of regulatory harmonisation. Some countries consider prediction markets as financial instruments, while others equate them to gambling or simply do not yet have a specific legal framework. This regulatory diversity enables platforms to operate internationally by taking advantage of the differences between legislations and complicates cooperation between supervisory bodies.

For security professionals, the prevention of this type of crime requires a multidisciplinary approach. It is not enough to protect the integrity of sports competitions; it is also necessary to strengthen anti-money laundering (AML) prevention systems, improve know your customer (KYC) mechanisms, enhance transaction analysis in blockchain, and promote information sharing among regulators, financial entities, technology platforms, and law enforcement.

Ultimately, the 2026 World Cup represents much more than a sporting competition. It is also a testament to the ability of monitoring systems to adapt to an increasingly digital, global, and decentralised financial ecosystem. The evolution of sports betting and prediction markets demonstrates that financial crime is also constantly innovating, and that control mechanisms must evolve at the same pace if they want to continue protecting the integrity of the financial system and of sports.

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Intensive Supervision Courts: a new strategy to reduce recidivism in the United Kingdom

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The UK Government has announced a significant expansion of the Intensive Supervision Courts, a model inspired by initiatives developed in the United States, particularly in the state of Texas. The main objective is to reduce recidivism among low-level habitual offenders through a system that combines very strict judicial oversight with rehabilitation and social support programmes.

To promote this initiative, the Ministry of Justice will allocate £9 million to expand the number of these courts, which will increase from five to eleven locations across the country. The measure will focus especially on individuals with a long history of minor offences, women, and offenders with addiction problems or other factors that hinder their reintegration.

Unlike the traditional judicial model, these courts establish a continuous relationship between the judge and the offender. Each participant appears periodically before the same judge, who supervises compliance with the imposed conditions, evaluates the evolution of the case, and can adapt the measures according to the results obtained. This ongoing supervision aims to strengthen personal accountability and ensure that the commitments made are effectively fulfilled.

Participants must attend court sessions, follow addiction treatment programmes, engage in rehabilitation activities, and comply with any other conditions set by the court. Non-compliance entails immediate consequences, such as an increase in control measures, the imposition of electronic monitoring devices, or, in the most serious cases, imprisonment for violating the conditions of the sentence.

The government defends this strategy by arguing that many repeat offenders have mental health problems, addictions, personal traumas, or social vulnerability situations that directly contribute to their ability to commit crimes repeatedly. For this reason, it is believed that acting solely with prison sentences often does not address the causes that lead to criminal behaviour and may promote a continuous cycle of recidivism.

The data provided by the Ministry indicates that the problem-solving court models implemented in several countries have managed to reduce new arrests by approximately one third compared to traditional systems. The experience of Texas is also highlighted, where this approach is associated with a significant decrease in the prison population and a 29% reduction in crime rates.

The initial results of the pilot projects developed in Birmingham, Bristol, Liverpool and Teesside have also been positively evaluated. According to the official assessment, approximately two-thirds of the participants fully met the conditions imposed by the court. Among offenders with severe drug addiction issues, toxicology tests were negative in nearly two-thirds of cases. In addition,

probation service professionals and treatment teams have observed a decrease in drug and alcohol consumption, as well as improved attention to mental health issues.

From a public safety perspective, this initiative represents a paradigm shift. The goal is no longer solely to punish the crime, but to reduce the risk of the offender reoffending. If risk factors can be controlled through close supervision and appropriate treatment, it is possible to decrease the number of victims, reduce the pressure on the prison system, and optimise the resources allocated to the fight against crime.

This model also allows for reserving prison spaces for the most dangerous criminals, while lower-risk offenders are subjected to intensive monitoring within the community. Alongside this, the UK Government has announced an increase of up to £700 million in funding for probation services until 2028-2029, the addition of at least 1,300 new supervision officers and an unprecedented expansion of electronic monitoring systems through GPS devices and alcohol controls.

Overall, this reform reflects an increasingly prevalent trend in modern security policies: combining firmness in the enforcement of sentences with interventions aimed at addressing the causes of recidivism. Although it will be necessary to assess the long-term results, international experience suggests that this type of court can contribute to improving both citizen security and the efficiency of the criminal justice system.

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Les tribunaux de surveillance intensive : une nouvelle stratégie pour réduire la récidive au Royaume-Uni

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Le Gouvernement britannique a annoncé une extension importante des tribunaux de surveillance intensive (Intensive Supervision Courts), un modèle inspiré d’expériences menées aux États-Unis, notamment dans l’État du Texas. L’objectif principal est de réduire la récidive chez les délinquants habituellement auteurs d’infractions de faible gravité grâce à un système combinant un contrôle judiciaire particulièrement étroit avec des programmes de réinsertion et d’accompagnement social.

Pour promouvoir cette initiative, le ministère de la Justice consacrera 9 millions de livres à l’extension du dispositif, dont le nombre de tribunaux passera de cinq à onze sites répartis sur l’ensemble du pays. Cette mesure ciblera en priorité les personnes ayant un long passé de petite délinquance, les femmes ainsi que les auteurs d’infractions souffrant d’addictions ou confrontés à d’autres difficultés compromettant leur réinsertion.

Contrairement au modèle judiciaire traditionnel, ces tribunaux instaurent une relation suivie entre le juge et la personne condamnée. Chaque participant comparaît régulièrement devant le même juge, qui contrôle le respect des obligations imposées, évalue l’évolution de sa situation et peut adapter les mesures en fonction des résultats obtenus. Ce suivi continu vise à renforcer la prise de responsabilité des intéressés et à garantir le respect effectif des engagements pris.

Les participants sont tenus d’assister aux audiences, de suivre des programmes de traitement des addictions, de participer à des actions de réhabilitation et de respecter toute autre obligation fixée par le tribunal. Tout manquement entraîne des conséquences immédiates, telles qu’un renforcement des mesures de contrôle, l’imposition d’un dispositif de surveillance électronique ou, dans les cas les plus graves, une incarcération pour non-respect des conditions de la condamnation.

Le Gouvernement justifie cette approche en soulignant que de nombreux délinquants récidivistes souffrent de troubles de la santé mentale, d’addictions, de traumatismes ou de situations de grande précarité, autant de facteurs qui favorisent la répétition des actes délictueux. Pour cette raison, il estime que le recours exclusif à l’emprisonnement ne permet souvent pas de traiter les causes profondes de la délinquance et risque d’entretenir un cycle permanent de récidive.

Les données fournies par le Ministère indiquent que les tribunaux spécialisés dans la résolution des problèmes, mis en place dans plusieurs pays, ont permis de réduire d’environ un tiers le nombre de nouvelles arrestations par rapport aux systèmes judiciaires classiques. Le Ministère met également en avant l’expérience du Texas, où cette approche est associée à une diminution significative de la population carcérale ainsi qu’à une baisse de 29 % des taux de criminalité.

Les premiers résultats des projets pilotes menés à Birmingham, Bristol, Liverpool et Teesside sont également jugés encourageants. Selon l’évaluation officielle, environ deux tiers des participants ont respecté l’intégralité des obligations imposées par le tribunal. Parmi les délinquants souffrant d’une forte dépendance aux drogues, les tests toxicologiques se sont révélés négatifs dans près de deux tiers des cas. De plus, les professionnels des services de probation et les équipes de prise en charge ont par ailleurs constaté une diminution de la consommation de drogues et d’alcool, ainsi qu’une amélioration de la prise en charge des troubles de la santé mentale.

Du point de vue de la sécurité publique, cette initiative marque un véritable changement de paradigme. L’objectif n’est plus seulement de sanctionner le délit, mais de réduire le risque de récidive. Si les facteurs de risque peuvent être maîtrisés grâce à un suivi étroit et à une prise en charge adaptée, il devient possible de réduire le nombre de victimes, d’alléger la pression sur le système pénitentiaire et d’optimiser les ressources consacrées à la lutte contre la délinquance.

Ce modèle permet également de réserver les places en détention aux délinquants les plus dangereux, tandis que les auteurs d’infractions présentant un risque faible font l’objet d’un contrôle intensif au sein de la communauté. Parallèlement, le Gouvernement britannique a annoncé une augmentation pouvant atteindre 700 millions de livres dans le financement des services de probation d’ici à 2028-2029, le recrutement d’au moins 1 300 nouveaux agents de probation ainsi qu’un déploiement sans précédent des dispositifs de surveillance électronique, notamment au moyen de bracelets GPS et de systèmes de contrôle de l’alcool.

Dans l’ensemble, cette réforme reflète une tendance de plus en plus présente dans les politiques de sécurité contemporaines : combiner la fermeté dans l’application des peines avec des interventions visant à traiter les causes de la récidive. Bien qu’il soit nécessaire d’évaluer les résultats à long terme, l’expérience internationale laisse penser que ce type de tribunal peut contribuer à renforcer à la fois la sécurité publique et l’efficacité du système de justice pénale.

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Criminal opportunism: how organised crime networks are evolving in the European Union

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Europol’s latest report, «Decoding the EU’s most threatening criminal networks – Issue 2 – The blueprint of criminal opportunism», published in June 2026, provides an updated overview of the state of organised crime in the European Union and highlights an increasingly evident reality: criminal organisations not only survive police pressure but constantly evolve by taking advantage of any opportunity offered by today’s digital, financial, and geopolitical society.

One of the most notable data points is that 76% of the 821 high-risk criminal networks identified by Europol in 2024 are no longer considered among the most dangerous. This result is the consequence of numerous coordinated operations among European police forces, based on police intelligence, financial investigations, and international cooperation. In many cases, organisations have been dismantled, while in others they have fragmented, changed their structure, or lost operational capacity.

However, these positive data conceal a troubling reality. The report identifies 198 criminal networks that remain active and that, in many cases, are the most established, hierarchical, and difficult to dismantle. Moreover, during this same period, 533 new networks have emerged, which demonstrates the great adaptability of organised crime. When an organisation disappears, other organisations often emerge to quickly fill its space.

Europol highlights that these networks do not operate in isolation. They are part of a genuine criminal ecosystem, in which different groups cooperate and share resources, specialised services, knowledge, and contacts. This interconnection provides them with great resilience and allows them to react quickly to any police action.

The report also emphasises the technological transformation of organised crime. Criminal organisations are increasingly using digital platforms, encrypted communication applications, internet services, and artificial intelligence-based tools to expand their activities, attract victims, automate processes, and reduce the risk of being detected. This phenomenon demonstrates that digitalisation represents an opportunity for both society and criminals.

In the economic sphere, criminal networks exploit vulnerabilities in financial systems to conceal profits obtained illegally. The use of cryptocurrencies, sophisticated money laundering techniques , and seemingly legitimate businesses facilitates the movement of money between countries and the reinvestment of profits into new criminal activities. This professionalisation makes investigations increasingly complex and requires close collaboration between police units, judicial authorities, and financial institutions.

According to Europol, the analysed networks group more than 400,000 members from 118 different nationalities and engage in a wide range of activities. Among the most common are drug trafficking, cybercrime, human trafficking, financial fraud, labour exploitation, and other forms of serious crime that often have an international dimension.

Europol officials insist that the results obtained so far demonstrate the effectiveness of European police cooperation, but they also warn that the fight against organised crime cannot be limited to the arrest of criminals. A comprehensive response involving public administrations, the private sector, technology companies, financial institutions, and citizens is necessary. Prevention, the exchange of information, and innovation are essential elements for reducing the opportunities that these organisations exploit.

Another relevant conclusion is that criminal groups are extraordinarily opportunistic. Any economic crisis, international conflict, technological advance, or regulatory change can become a new source of illicit business. This capacity for adaptation compels authorities to anticipate risks, strengthen strategic intelligence, and invest in new analytical and research tools.

In short, the Europol report conveys a dual message. On one hand, it confirms that international cooperation and coordinated investigations yield tangible results and allow for the dismantling of many of the most dangerous criminal networks. On the other hand, it warns that organised crime continues to reinvent itself rapidly, taking advantage of the opportunities offered by digital transformation, globalisation, and the complexity of financial systems.

For the security sector, this report is an essential reference. Beyond the figures, it highlights that the future of the fight against organised crime will depend on the ability to combine technology, international cooperation, police intelligence, and active involvement from all social actors. Only in this way will it be possible to reduce the resilience of criminal networks and more effectively protect the security of citizens and European institutions.

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The increase in SUVs and pickups: a growing challenge for pedestrian safety in the U.S.

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For much of the 20th century and the early years of the 21st century, U.S. roads gradually became safer for pedestrians. However, this trend reversed around the year 2009. Since then, the number of pedestrians killed in traffic accidents has increased by approximately 75%, a development that has concerned the researchers responsible for road safety and public administrations.

Various factors have been identified as possible causes of this increase, such as distraction caused by mobile phones, drug-impaired driving, or the general increase in traffic. However, an investigation based on federal records and automotive industry data points to an element that has often gone unnoticed: the steady growth in the size of vehicles, especially SUVs and pickups.

According to this analysis, current vehicles are considerably larger and taller than they were two decades ago. This change is not just an aesthetic or comfort issue, but it has direct implications for pedestrian safety. Researchers estimate that between 200 and 400 annual deaths could be related to this increase in dimensions. Overall, this would represent approximately 10% of the recent increase in fatalities among pedestrians.

Experts identify two main reasons that explain why large vehicles are more dangerous. The former is the height of the hood. In traditional cars, an impact usually occurs in the leg area, often causing the body to be projected onto the vehicle. In contrast, SUVs and pickups have much higher hoods, which strike directly at the torso or even the head of the pedestrian. This type of impact significantly increases the severity of injuries and raises the risk of the person being dragged or ending up under the vehicle’s wheels.

The second cause is the reduction of visibility. As vehicles have grown, so have their blind spots. Tests conducted with three-dimensional scanners on some of the most popular models in the North American market show that areas with no direct visibility for the driver are now much larger than in equivalent models from the 1990s or early 2000s. This makes it difficult to detect the presence of pedestrians, especially children, short individuals, or users who are very close to the vehicle.

Several real cases described in the study illustrate the consequences of this issue. In some fatal accidents, drivers claimed not to have seen the victim before the impact. Subsequent reconstructions concluded that structural elements of the vehicle, such as the raised hood, the mirrors, or the side pillars, had significantly limited the field of view.

Automakers argue that new driver assistance systems can compensate for these limitations. Technologies such as automatic emergency braking or pedestrian detection are designed to reduce the risk of collisions. However,

different studies have shown that these systems do not work perfectly in all situations. Factors such as adverse weather, shadows, high speeds, or the presence of children can reduce their effectiveness.

Beyond technical issues, the expansion of SUVs and pickups also responds to economic and cultural reasons. These vehicles generate very high profit margins for manufacturers, who have progressively reduced the production of saloons and other conventional passenger cars. In parallel, advertising campaigns have associated large vehicles with concepts such as safety, prestige, strength, or personal success. This message has contributed to consolidating the perception that a larger vehicle is a better option for many families.

Road safety specialists insist that the size of vehicles is not the only cause of the increase in pedestrian deaths. Urban design, traffic speed, driver distraction, and other factors remain determinants. However, there is increasing evidence that the trend towards taller and bulkier vehicles has increased the risk for the most vulnerable road users.

In conclusion, the growth of SUVs and pickups poses a significant road safety challenge. Despite technological advancements, the combination of higher hoods and larger blind spots increases the severity of accidents and hinders the detection of pedestrians. This phenomenon highlights the need to continue researching and developing measures that better protect the most vulnerable users, balancing the safety of vehicle occupants with that of pedestrians.

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The drug market in Europe: new challenges for security and public health

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The European Drug Report 2026 highlights an increasingly complex reality for security officials, public administrations, and health professionals. Despite the efforts made over the last few decades, the availability of illicit drugs remains high across Europe, while the constant emergence of new substances and the evolution of criminal markets create new risks and challenges.

One of the main conclusions of the report is the consolidation of an extremely diversified drug market. Cannabis remains the most widely consumed illegal substance, followed by cocaine, which maintains high levels of availability in many European countries. At the same time, synthetic stimulants, such as amphetamines, methamphetamine, and synthetic cathinones, are gaining prominence and expanding the available supply for consumers.

From a security perspective, this scenario implies greater complexity for law enforcement agencies and organisations involved in the fight against drug trafficking. Criminal networks have demonstrated a great capacity for adaptation, taking advantage of new technologies, global trade routes, and digital channels to facilitate the distribution of illegal substances. The production of synthetic drugs within European territory also continues to represent a significant concern, especially due to the ease with which chemical formulas can be modified to evade legal controls.

Another notable element is the increase in new psychoactive substances. Every year, new chemical compounds are detected that appear on the market at a pace that exceeds the regulatory capacity of many states. This phenomenon complicates the identification of risks associated with consumption and increases uncertainty for both emergency services and healthcare systems. Among these substances, synthetic cannabinoids, synthetic cathinones, and new synthetic opioids stand out, some of which may have a potency far exceeding that of traditional drugs.

The report also warns about the evolution of the opioid market. Although heroin remains the primary substance in this group, the increasing presence of highly potent synthetic opioids represents an emerging threat. Experience observed in other regions of the world shows that these substances can cause sudden increases in overdoses and drug-related deaths if they are not properly identified and controlled.

Regarding social and health impacts, the use of injectable drugs continues to generate a disproportionate burden of harm, including transmissible infections, hospitalisations, and mortality. Despite the general decrease in this consumption pattern over the last few years, the need to maintain prevention, treatment, and harm reduction programs remains essential.

In light of this situation, security cannot be addressed exclusively from a repressive perspective. The most effective policies combine the prosecution of

organised crime with prevention, education, treatment, and harm reduction measures. Coordination between law enforcement agencies, health authorities, European institutions, and social services is essential to anticipate new threats and reduce the impacts associated with drug consumption.

In conclusion, the European Drug Report 2026 confirms that Europe is facing a dynamic and changing scenario. The diversification of available substances, the constant emergence of new synthetic compounds, and the adaptability of criminal networks demand a comprehensive response based on intelligence, international cooperation, and public health protection. Only through a balanced strategy will it be possible to effectively tackle the security challenges posed by the phenomenon of drugs in the coming years.

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Evolution of security in Portugal: stability with new challenges

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Portugal is still considered one of the safest countries in Europe, both according to official statistics and the main international safety indices. However, the recent evolution of crime shows a more complex reality: while general crime remains relatively stable, some specific phenomena—such as cybercrime, sexual offences, or juvenile delinquency—have increased and cause concern among authorities and the public.

According to the Annual Internal Security Report (RASI), during 2024 Portugal recorded an overall decrease in crime of 4.6%, with 354,878 reports, but violent and serious crimes increased by 2.6%. This apparent contradiction confirms a trend observed in other European countries: traditional crime is decreasing, but forms of criminality with a greater social and media impact are on the rise.

Thefts remain the most common crime, especially in large urban areas and tourist spots such as Lisbon, Porto, or the Algarve. At the same time, a significant increase in vehicle thefts, commercial robberies, and scams related to housing rentals and digital platforms has been detected.

One of the points that concerns the Portuguese security forces the most is the increase in sexual crimes. The number of reported rapes in 2024 increased by nearly 10% compared to the previous year, reaching the highest value of the last decade. Although the authorities attribute part of this increase to a greater willingness of victims to report, the phenomenon also reflects a growing social pressure on prevention and protection mechanisms.

Juvenile crime is another highlighted element. The 2024 RASI recorded more than 2,000 cases linked to minors aged between 12 and 16 years, with an increase of over 12%. Incidents in school environments and episodes of group violence also increased, especially in metropolitan areas. This phenomenon has opened a political and social debate about integration, social exclusion, and the preventive capacity of the educational system.

On the other hand, some structural indicators remain positive. Homicides remain at low levels compared to the European average, with rates below 1 homicide per 100,000 inhabitants. Similarly, domestic violence has decreased for three consecutive years according to official data, although it continues to account for one of the most reported crimes in the country.

Cybercrime is probably the challenge with the most future potential. Digital scams, phishing, identity theft, and cyberattacks have steadily increased following the pandemic. This evolution compels the Portuguese police forces to strengthen technological units and invest in digital intelligence and international cooperation.

Another relevant aspect is the citizens’ perception of insecurity. Various social and political debates in Portugal show a gap between objective data and public perception. There is a growing concern on social media and digital forums regarding immigration, radicalization, and the presence of violent groups, although official statistics do not indicate a widespread deterioration of security.

The Portuguese authorities insist that the country «remains globally safe», but they acknowledge that there are indicators that require constant monitoring and adaptation. In this context, Portugal faces a scenario similar to that of other European societies: less conventional crime, but greater complexity in the threats linked to the digital world, social cohesion, and urban security.

For the private security sector and citizen protection, this evolution implies new needs: greater technological specialization, preventive analysis capacity, and coordination among law enforcement agencies, administrations, and security companies. The security of the future in Portugal will depend both on police response and on the ability to anticipate increasingly hybrid and changing risks.

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Cybercrime is evolving into real-world physical threats

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Cybercrime is undergoing a worrying transformation: digital threats are increasingly accompanied by intimidation and actual physical violence. For many years, cyberattacks were mainly limited to data theft, the hijacking of computer systems or financial extortion via ransomware. Attackers operated anonymously, and pressure on victims was exerted exclusively in the digital realm. Today, however, this boundary is breaking down.

Various reports and research from security firms warn that some criminal groups have started using direct physical threats to increase the effectiveness of their attacks. The aim is to instil real fear among employees, executives and negotiators to force the payment of ransoms or facilitate access to the systems under attack. This development marks a new phase in cybercrime, where psychological pressure and personal intimidation are becoming a regular part of criminal strategy.

One of the best-known cases is that of Tim Beasley, an employee of the company Semperis. During negotiations relating to a ransomware attack against a US government organisation, Beasley received a suspicious package at his home containing a threatening note hinting at possible physical harm if he continued to participate in the negotiations. Such incidents, which were previously rare, are beginning to occur more frequently within the international security landscape.

The data clearly illustrates this trend. According to FBI figures, cybercrime incidents in the United States have risen dramatically over the last decade, exceeding one million cases a year. At the same time, the financial losses resulting from cyberattacks now exceed 20 billion dollars annually. But the most worrying development is the rise in physical threats associated with cyberattacks.

Studies by Semperis indicate that approximately 40% of global ransomware attacks in 2025 included threats of physical harm against employees or managers of the victim companies. In the United States, this proportion reached almost 50%. Criminals exploit personal data stolen during attacks—home addresses, telephone numbers, family details or financial information—to intimidate victims directly.

A particularly sensitive case occurred at a US hospital that had been hit by a ransomware attack. As Zac Warren explained, the attackers called nurses and healthcare workers directly, mentioning their home addresses and other private information to make them feel under surveillance. This type of intimidation aims to generate a high level of emotional stress and pressure the organisation into paying the ransom quickly.

The situation is particularly serious because many of the attackers do not carry out these threats themselves, but instead subcontract them to third parties. Some criminal groups use forums, social media or clandestine channels to recruit individuals willing to intimidate, stalk or physically assault victims. This phenomenon falls under the concept known as “violence-as-a-service”, which is being investigated by organisations such as Europol.

Just as there are criminal models such as ransomware-as-a-service, networks are now also emerging that offer physical intimidation services on demand. Actions can range from vandalising homes or vehicles to assaults, kidnappings or more serious attacks. US authorities have also warned of criminal networks known as “The Com”, linked to violent activities commissioned by cybercriminals.

The world of cryptocurrencies is one of the sectors most affected by this new reality. Investors and entrepreneurs linked to the crypto sector often publicly display their wealth or lifestyle on social media, making them visible targets for criminals. In recent years, there have been numerous cases of kidnappings and attacks against people involved in cryptocurrencies, particularly in Europe.

In France, for example, the police rescued the father of a cryptocurrency millionaire who had been kidnapped for ransom. According to various reports, the kidnappers had amputated one of his fingers to put pressure on the family. Cases such as these highlight the extent to which cybercrime and traditional crime are beginning to merge.

Experts believe this trend will continue to grow. As long as companies continue to pay ransoms under pressure, criminal groups will have an incentive to step up their intimidation tactics. The combination of mass access to personal data, global criminal networks and the ease of hiring illegal services creates a particularly complex environment from a security perspective.

This forces organisations to completely rethink their protection protocols. It is no longer enough to defend networks and servers: organisations must also protect employees’ personal information, limit public exposure and prepare protocols for potential physical threats arising from digital incidents. Cybersecurity is no longer just a technological issue; it has also become a matter of human security.

In short, cybercrime is evolving towards hybrid models in which the digital world and physical violence are increasingly converging. Attacks no longer seek solely to obtain money or data, but aim to instil real fear in order to make extortion more effective. This new phase represents one of the major security challenges of the coming years and is forcing businesses and institutions to adapt to a far more aggressive and complex threat.

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