Last February, the research organisation RAND published a report authored by Jim Mitre and Joel B. Predd, in which they warn that the emergence of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI) is a real possibility that the U.S. national security community should be taking seriously.
The report identifies five major challenges that Generative Artificial Intelligence may pose to U.S. national security. (1) the development of wonder weapons, (2) systemic shifts in power, (3) the ability of non-experts to create weapons of mass destruction, (4) the emergence of artificial entities with agency, and (5) widespread instability.
All of this poses a number of challenges for strategists and policy and security decision-makers as they try to anticipate the threats and opportunities that could arise both during the process of achieving GAI and once it materialises.
A new technological Manhattan Project?
In 1938, the splitting of the atom started the nuclear arms race. Now, advances in Generative Artificial Intelligence have raised similar fears in the national security sphere. Will it be the next strategic paradigm shift? And, if so, what threats does it pose to global security?
Although GAI is still a hypothesis, its plausibility demands a strategic response from states. The RAND study identifies five major issues that could emerge with the development of GAI:
- Wonder weapons and first-move advantage
The great fear is that GAI could uncover a revolutionary technological breakthrough, enabling the development of unstoppable cyberweapons, hyper-advanced autonomous systems or perfectly optimised military strategies. This could confer a massive advantage to the first nation to gain control of it.
- Systemic shift in global power
GAI could alter the balance of power between nations, not necessarily through weapons, but through its ability to improve productivity, accelerate scientific discovery or redefine global economic dynamics. This could lead to a new world order in which the economies most adaptable to GAI consolidate their dominance.
An added risk is that the concentration of GAI development in a few private companies could give them unprecedented power, altering the traditional relationship between states and corporations.
- Empowerment of non-experts in weapons of mass destruction
If GAI can facilitate the creation of highly lethal biological or cyberweapons, global security will be severely compromised. Current systems have already demonstrated worrying capabilities in this area, and GAI could amplify the risk exponentially.
- Artificial entities with agency
Loss of control over GAI systems could lead to the creation of autonomous artificial entities capable of acting independently. This could pose a risk to critical decision making in sectors such as defence, economics and critical infrastructure management.
- Strategic instability
Before GAI fully arrives, the technology race between states and corporations may provoke tensions similar to the Cold War. The perception that an adversary is on the verge of gaining a decisive advantage could trigger pre-emptive reactions, even armed conflict.
Towards a resilient strategy
The United States and its allies have initiated measures to maintain leadership in AI, but they may prove insufficient if GAI develops in a sudden or disruptive manner.
GAI can redefine the future of global security. This is not just a technical challenge, but a strategic revolution that requires an intelligent and proactive response. Decisions made today will determine whether GAI becomes a stabilising force or an unprecedented threat to humanity.
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