The 2026 FIFA World Cup is not only one of the most followed sporting events on the planet, but also one of the most attractive for criminal organisations. The enormous volume of bets generated by this tournament, along with the expansion of cryptocurrency-based prediction markets, is opening new avenues for organised crime to launder capital, manipulate markets, and exploit the difficulties faced by regulators in controlling these activities.

Traditionally, illegal gambling has been a tool used to launder money from criminal activities. The mechanism is simple: illicit money is deposited in betting platforms and, after several operations, the winnings are withdrawn as if they were legitimate income. The most sophisticated criminal networks use multiple accounts and bet on different outcomes to minimise losses and give the appearance of legality to their funds.

The emergence of so-called prediction markets has introduced a new dimension to the problem. Unlike traditional betting houses, these platforms operate as a marketplace where users buy and sell positions on the outcome of an event, often using cryptocurrencies. This structure facilitates almost instantaneous international operations and hinders the tracing of financial flows by the authorities.

In addition to the risk of money laundering, these markets present other significant vulnerabilities. One is the use of insider information, that is, individuals with early access to relevant data —such as player injuries, line-ups, or refereeing decisions— who can gain economic benefits before this information becomes public. The other is the manipulation of sporting events, especially through the known spot-fixing, which consists of altering specific actions in a match (yellow cards, corners, or penalties) without needing to influence the final result.

According to various international organisations, the volume of money that moves annually in illegal betting markets is enormous and continues to grow. The increase in online gambling, especially in emerging countries, along with the widespread use of e-wallets, mobile payment systems, and cryptocurrencies, has created a highly fragmented financial infrastructure. This fragmentation makes it difficult for a single authority to track the complete flow of money, especially when operations cross various jurisdictions.

Cryptocurrencies add complexity, but they also offer some transparency. All transactions are recorded on the blockchain, allowing investigators to analyse the movements of funds. However, identifying who is behind each digital wallet remains one of the main challenges, especially when users utilise multiple addresses, intermediary services, or platforms located in countries with limited regulation.

This scenario highlights another difficulty: the lack of regulatory harmonisation. Some countries consider prediction markets as financial instruments, while others equate them to gambling or simply do not yet have a specific legal framework. This regulatory diversity enables platforms to operate internationally by taking advantage of the differences between legislations and complicates cooperation between supervisory bodies.

For security professionals, the prevention of this type of crime requires a multidisciplinary approach. It is not enough to protect the integrity of sports competitions; it is also necessary to strengthen anti-money laundering (AML) prevention systems, improve know your customer (KYC) mechanisms, enhance transaction analysis in blockchain, and promote information sharing among regulators, financial entities, technology platforms, and law enforcement.

Ultimately, the 2026 World Cup represents much more than a sporting competition. It is also a testament to the ability of monitoring systems to adapt to an increasingly digital, global, and decentralised financial ecosystem. The evolution of sports betting and prediction markets demonstrates that financial crime is also constantly innovating, and that control mechanisms must evolve at the same pace if they want to continue protecting the integrity of the financial system and of sports.

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