Chile faces a paradoxical situation in terms of public security: despite having relatively low crime rates compared to other Latin American countries, the perception of insecurity among the population is one of the highest in the world. This contradiction became the central focus of political debate and the presidential electoral campaign, to the point that security is today the main concern among citizens.

Kast’s victory in the recent elections reflects many voters’ response to issues such as public security, illegal immigration and perceptions of insecurity or disagreements with the current economic or social model, which were central themes of the campaign.

According to an Ipsos poll, 63% of Chilean adults identify crime and violence as the issue that concerns them the most, a higher percentage than in countries such as Mexico or Colombia, which have much higher homicide rates. Globally, Chile ranks among the countries most concerned about insecurity and also among those where fewer people feel safe walking around their neighbourhood at night, according to reports by Ipsos and Gallup.

Daniel Johnson, Executive Director of the Paz Ciudadana Foundation, points out that with 6 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, the country is far from leading the statistics on violence in the region or the world.

Historically, Chile already had higher levels of fear of crime than the objective data indicated. However, this phenomenon has intensified in recent years, requiring further explanation. Studies by the Paz Ciudadana Foundation show that women and lower socioeconomic sectors express the highest levels of fear, especially in areas where the state’s presence is perceived as weak.

Although thefts and attempted thefts affect approximately one third of households—a figure similar to that of previous years—, what has really changed is the nature of the crime. Violent crime has increased significantly: the homicide rate has nearly doubled in a decade, violent robberies have grown by 25% in eight years, and previously rare crimes such as extortion and kidnappings, have started to gain prominence.

This change in the types of crime has a strong psychological impact on the population. Johnson points out that uncertainty about how to protect oneself against these new crimes significantly increases the feeling of vulnerability.

Another key factor is the expansion of organised crime, with the emergence of new organisations that operate differently from traditional ones. There has been an increase in the use of firearms, a rise in planned homicides, and the presence of transnational groups, some of which are linked to foreign nationals, such as the well-known case of Tren de Aragua.

Although immigration did not show a direct correlation with the increase in crime until 2020, authorities and research centres now observe a clear relationship between certain types of crime and foreign organisations, which often exploit both migrants and the local population. This has reinforced the perception that immigration and insecurity are linked, fuelling public and political debate.

Fear of crime is closely linked to mistrust in security and justice institutions. When citizens perceive that the state is not protecting them adequately, the reporting of crime declines, weakening the system’s response capacity and further eroding its legitimacy. However, Chilean police forces have managed to regain some of the trust lost after the social unrest.

Gabriel Boric’s government responded with significant institutional reforms, such as the creation of a Ministry of Security and mechanisms for inter-ministerial coordination. These measures are designed for the medium and long term, but they contrast with citizens’ demands for immediate responses, such as more patrols, lighting and cameras, although these actions have limited impact if they are not accompanied by structural changes.

In this context, security became a central theme of the electoral campaign. All candidates incorporated the discourse of insecurity, validating and amplifying existing fears. Historically, right-wing parties have prioritised control and repression, while the left has focused more on social policies. Today, however, a logic of urgency prevails, favouring short-term measures over preventive and reintegration policies, which are essential for a lasting solution.

Moreover, violent events in the region, such as large-scale police operations in Brazil and US military actions against drug trafficking, reinforce fears that Chile may follow the same path.

Chile is not one of the most violent countries in the world, but it is one of the most fearful. This gap between reality and perception, fuelled by changes in crime, the presence of organised crime, institutional mistrust and political exploitation, poses a major challenge: how to respond to the emergency without giving up on structural, long-term solutions? The future of security in the country will depend on the ability to combine effective control, institutional reforms and social policies that tackle the root causes of violence.

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